PM was right to walk away
Canada didn’t choose the trade war we find ourselves in, but we’re now finding ourselves fighting for our economic well-being. With the United States imposing sweeping Section 338 tariffs — a legally untested hammer not used since the 1940s — Canadian exports from autos to aluminum to furniture are suddenly facing punitive duties as high as 50 per cent. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s response has been equally firm: a “dollar-for-dollar” countertariff strategy and a suspension of negotiations after last-minute talks collapsed. The era of quiet, predictable crossborder commerce is over.
In Kawartha Lakes, local manufacturers — from metal fabricators to small industrial suppliers — now face rising input costs and shrinking U.S. demand. An analysis in this newspaper from writer Randy Neals makes the stakes clear: many of our businesses rely on U.S. buyers, U.S. components, or both. We will not emerge unscathed but the alternative was worse – a bad deal for Canada.
The Bank of Canada’s latest data shows steel exports to the U.S. have already fallen by half since earlier tariff rounds, with aluminum dropping sharply before partially recovering. Lumber exports are down 20 per cent from 2024 levels. These aren’t distant sectors — they’re the backbone of rural Ontario’s supply chain.
The Association of Municipalities of Ontario has already warned that Ontario could lose more than 100,000 jobs if the tariff regime persists into 2026. Construction alone could shed $2.6 billion in activity. That matters here, as this city is set to grow.
But the local analysis also highlights something important: resilience. Kawartha Lakes businesses have been adapting for years — through supply chain shocks, inflation, labour shortages, and pandemic disruptions. Some are looking to the federal Buy Canadian incentives, which are designed to soften the blow by supporting domestic production.
But let’s remember something important, something we often lose sight of. As former finance minister John Manley recently wrote, “Canada was a successful trading nation long before the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement came into force in 1989.”
“Trade liberalization has unquestionably benefited us, and no serious person argues otherwise. But it does not follow that Canada’s prosperity hinges on the existence of a single agreement, particularly one that the United States itself has periodically questioned, even ignored when convenient to do so.”
So let’s stay grounded and not believe the sky is falling. We know this trade war will test us, but in moments like this, it’s worth remembering who we are as Canadians.
