Warmer winter on the horizon for Kawartha Lakes says meteorologist

Less shovelling, earlier maple syrup, says expert

According to weather modeling now complete in Canada, the United States and Europe, Kawartha Lakes residents are in for a very different kind of winter than we experienced less than 12 months ago. 

After the record snow and cold of the 2025-2026 polar vortex, the 2026-2027 winter will be very different, says David Phillips, senior meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The warm Pacific current known as El Nino is expected to alter the jet stream, bringing warmer, wetter and less predictable weather for the next four to six months. 

Phillips said it will be much cheaper to heat your home this winter because the air is expected to be, on average, 4.5 degrees Celsius higher than this time last year.

Phillips said that 2023-2024 did not feature a single day under minus 20 degree Celsius, so-called cold days in the lexicon of weather people, while last winter Kawartha Lakes registered 15 of those days. 

“It is expected that people will save between 20-30 per cent on their heating bills,” Phillips said. “We expect that Kawartha Lakes will only get 50 to 75 per cent of its regular snowfall, and once it falls it will melt almost immediately and will not accumulate in drifts like it did last season.” 

Phillips said that in a typical winter, rain and snow arrive in roughly equal amounts. This year, however, forecasters expect a three-to-one split favouring rain, along with repeated freezethaw cycles and a greater chance of freezing rain instead of snowfall.

“While there should be fewer insurance losses this winter due to storm damage, and easier commuting than last winter there will definitely be winners and losers with this winter’s forecast,” Phillips said. “With winter, at times, feeling almost spring like, there will be less moisture available in April because there will be less snowpack leaving farmers with a potentially very dry late spring. This winter the moisture bank will not be refilled by winter snow. In northern Ontario, the forest fire season will begin earlier and run later.” 

El Nino 

“People in the climate business have been talking about this El Nino since spring,” Phillips said. “This will be the strongest El Nino in 80 years and will have a significant impact on our jet stream here in Canada.”

According to Phillips, recent data from the Pacific shows an almost four degrees Celsius increase in water temperature year over year fuelling this rapidly growing weather system. 

“The Pacific Ocean has never been this warm,” Phillips said, “and it is still growing. This is a gigantic, supersized textbook El Nino. Some are calling it the Godzilla El Nino. It will have a profound effect on our weather and will be responsible for a much different character and personality to the winter season when compared to last year.” 

Phillips said that since ECC started tracking water currents in the Pacific Ocean almost 80 years ago, there have been 26 years when the current temperatures have increased from the previous year, and four of these ocean warming cycles are so significant that they are labelled very strong including the one currently growing in the central Pacific.

“The winter of 2023-2024 was the last very strong El Nino,” Phillips said, “and Ontario had their warmest year on record. The warm and sunny fall we are currently experiencing is a typical event when very strong El Ninos are forming. We expect that because of this El Nino that 2027 is going to be the warmest year on record when said and done.” 

Phillips warns skiers, snowmobilers and fishers to take advantage of prime outdoor conditions when they have it this season as snow quantities available from week to week will be unpredictable at best. 

“Based on 2023-2024,” Phillips said, “I expect the maple syrup will be running a month early, there will be winter flooding when melting snow has nowhere to go, there will be less snow to plow and fewer winter coats will be found under the Christmas tree as this warm, warm, warm weather is with us for the duration.”